Written by: Matt Bracken
February 5, 2008
I was reading an S.I. magazine today and I flipped to the 'Inside Baseball' feature which I used to frequently read, it has become a little dated with the emergence of so many up to the minute baseball news sites. Anyway, Jon Heyman of S.I. posed a question to top 'experts' in baseball. You are building a team from scratch, who would be your top choice?
The leader, by a decent margin ended up being New York Mets speedy leadoff man Jose Reyes. Reyes was cited by several voters as having a near perfect combination of speed, defense and hitting. Says one National League coach, "He's the best defensive shortstop in baseball, if he gets on base 40 percent of the time, he'll set a record for runs scored."
I wanted to look deeper into the numbers to make my own conclusions.
After really breaking it down and looking into it, I had to come to this conclusion. Jose Reyes of the New York Mets is one of the most overrated shortstops, at least statistically speaking, in the game. There, I said it. I feel better now. It’s something that needed to be said and somebody needed to say it.
Of course, I have to admit I do enjoy watching him play. He is fast, athletic, has a stellar glove and a lightning quick release turning a double play. His overall exuberance and energy is something every baseball fan should enjoy. Reyes even seems like a model teammate, that all has to count for something. But you really want to build your franchise around the guy that makes the most outs in baseball year after year?
Aside from his stolen base total, statistically speaking, Jose Reyes is quite average.
Baseball fans have long been enamoured with a guy who steals a ton of bases and who can absolutely burn down the first-base line and beat out a squib single or a bunt single. I can admit I enjoy it as well, seeing a guy leg out a triple is one of the most exciting plays in all of sports when you are at the good old ballpark. I have season tickets for the Detroit Tigers and watching Curtis Granderson stretch out a triple was well worth the price of admission. But with this comes the almost inevitable conclusion that the actual value of a guy like Reyes will be far overblown.
Even the stolen bases, his greatest asset really doesn’t automatically qualify Reyes as a top leadoff man.
Mike Pindelski wrote at beyondtheboxscore.com:
‘My analysis has been based off run totals over the last four seasons (2002-2005).
So what kind of an impact has stolen bases had on scoring runs over the last four seasons?
The Answer: Very minimal. Since 2002, 40% of teams who finished among the top five stolen base leaders have gone on to place 15th or higher in total runs scored, in other words, only 8 of the 20 teams. Also since 2002, only 10% of teams who finished among the top five stolen base teams have managed to place 5th place or higher in total runs scored, or 2 out of the 20 teams. We've seen of the last few seasons, that the power of the stolen bag is grossly overrated by the media, and not even remotely close to the importance of on-base and slugging percentages. We haven't seen a high correlation to high stolen base totals and high run scoring totals over these last few seasons. Speed doesn't always equal big run totals.’
Let’s play the comparison game. For perspective, did you know over the past 5 full MLB seasons the following player (who is much maligned) has:
-batting average of .298 and an on-base % of .344
-averaged 201 hits per season
-averaged 57 steals & 96 runs
The player in question is, drum roll please, none other than the ‘offensively inept’ Juan Pierre.
New York Mets SS Jose Reyes:
*career average of .284 and an on-base % of .330
*has averaged 194 hits per season (per 162 game season)
*averaged 64 steals & 114 runs (per 162 game season)
*averaged 12 HRs per season (per 162)
I decided to use Juan Pierre as comparison for effect. One, he had batted leadoff most of his career, they have a similar stat set and three Pierre has taken serious abuse over the years for his offensive skills, or lack thereof. One also has to factor in the position difference. I know playing SS is a much more demanding defensive position and Reyes has improved his overall defensive game. Pierre’s fielding [RAR – Rate above replacement] in 2006 and 2007 was 6 and 2 while Reyes was only a 1 in 2006 but rated a 27 in 2007. Jose Reyes has a Rate2 (same as RAR, but takes into account every variable possible] of 105, Juan Pierre’s is 89.
I’d say he’s clearly a better defender at SS than Pierre is in the outfield. To that end, Fox Sports writer Dayn Perry said of the potential move to LF for the Dodgers, "So as opposed to being merely a bad offensive center fielder, he's going to be an inexcusably miserable offensive left fielder".
The words ‘brutal’, ‘terrible’, and ‘plain awful’ have long been used to describe hard working and personable CF Juan Pierre’s work with the bat. When compared to Jose Reyes whom may never have any of the above adjectives linked to his name, it shows us that his impact upon the Mets offence is just highly overstated. In 2006 and 2007 Reyes had a WARP2 factor of 6.6 and 9.6 while Pierre only checked in at 3.6 and 3.4. With those stats, admitting that Pierre in any shape or form is a more valuable player is foolish. Though the comparison does at the very least gives some credence to the argument Reyes is overrated.
More importantly for leadoff men is the ability to get on base. Reyes has a career OBP% of .330 and it was .354 in 2006 and 2007. That pretty much takes away the argument he is the ultimate table setter. For their careers Jose Reyes has created 5.3 runs per game while Juan Pierre has a 4.8 clip. Both are below average hitters for those that value adjusted OPS and runs created measurements. Reyes for his career has a 97 adjusted OPS.
Tigers journeymen SS Edgar Renteria has a career 97 adjusted OPS for perspective, while oft-criticized Rafael Furcal checks in with a 94 mark. Neither of these players will be knocking down Cooperstown’s doors anytime soon. Also, in a league where you face a right handed pitcher nearly 70% of the time, Jose Reyes managed only a meagre .266 average and .344 OBP % in 2007. His career average vs righties is .277 and his on-base % is .326.
His reputation of ultimate table setter is far overblown as his career mark of 5.3 runs created per game indicates. Rickey Henderson was never below 7.0 rc/g during his career and during his real meat and potato years he was near or over 10.0. Nearly double the mark Reyes has consistently put up during his short career. Henderson’s career mark is 6.8, and that includes many of his ‘one season too long’ seasons late in his career!
My buddy Harry Fanelli brought this to my attention and I think it is a compelling argument against Reyes. In the 2007 season, Jose Reyes made 523 outs. Baseball is an odd game in that you have a finite number of outs to use up. Of course, there are no time limits. For one player to use up almost 20 games worth by himself, well it puts you at a tremendous disadvantage. Reyes played nearly every game and hit leadoff you argue? Ichiro led off 161 games and wasn't in the top 10 in the American League! Jimmy Rollins somehow took home the NL MVP in 2007 and he made the most outs in all of baseball. Writers get so caught up in anomalies like the 20-20-20-20 BS, that they don't actually look at the meaningful numbers.
Now, to add another dynamic to this argument let us compare some numbers to another young and promising NL SS who plays in the same division as Reyes. Hanley Ramirez of the Florida Marlins is rarely mentioned in talks and arguments for top SS in the game let alone his own division. (Note: Ramirez didn't receive 1 vote in this poll)But since coming over from the Red Sox minor league system in the Josh Beckett trade, Ramirez has started his career with a huge bang.
First, in 2006 HanRam (sigh, another "Ram" nickname) took home Rookie of the Year honours and followed that up by cranking 29 HRs and stealing 50+ bases in 2007. Did I mention he finished the last month playing with a separated shoulder that required surgery following the 2007 season? Both Reyes and Ramirez are 24 years old and both have hit leadoff predominantly since stepping in full time.
Let’s check how they compare in most major offensive categories as well as adjusted OPS, RC/G (runs created/game) and BT Runs (Adjusted Batting Runs). Let’s take a closer look at the latter stat first to learn more before we compare this measurement provided by Baseball-reference.com. It’s a phenomenal and interesting way to compare different players. Bare with me, here goes:
BT Runs (Adjusted Batting Runs) - This is the linear weight method pioneered by Pete Palmer. It is a bit more accurate than Runs Created and also handles differing offensive environments more easily. It is adjusted to the park and league the player played in. It is also relative to league average, so negative values mean they were below average for the league. In the calculations, consider league average without pitchers included. See the ESPN Baseball Encyclopedia for a full description.
Lets also take into effect the home parks of both hitters. Neither Shea nor Dolphin Stadium is very hitter friendly and according to 2007 DMB (Diamond Mind Baseball) ballpark ratings, Dolphin Stadium was particularly brutal on right hand hitters, especially for the long ball. Both have hit leadoff though some suggest Hanley will eventually settle into the #3 hole in the line-up. As a result, he and Reyes are likely to take a different approach at the plate.
2007 AVG/ OBP/ SLG HR/RBI/R OPS+ RC/G BT-R
J. Reyes .280/.354/.421 12/57/119 103 5.7 2.7
H.Ramirez .332/.386/.562 29/81/125 145 8.3 42.1
Ummm, right. Not much of a comparison at all.
I took the liberty of giving you a sampling of the BT Runs category with 4 other players for even more perspective and for comparison sake.
All of these numbers are from the 2007 season:
*1B Albert Pujols (BT Runs – 53.3)
*3B David Wright (49.7)
*2B Brian Roberts (13.9)
*SS David Eckstein (-3.2)
Oh, and for those curious, Juan Pierre was an awful –27.1. Hey, I never said I would take Pierre over Reyes. Reyes’s cross-town comparison Derek Jeter comes in at 21.4.
Now Reyes is still in the early stages of his career, and hasn’t probably hit the prime years of his hitting career. Signs show he can still improve his on-base skills (he did walk a career high 77 times in 2007) but I also feel he has a long way to go to really be fairly placed among the games elite.
In closing, maybe it’s the New York media and the very fact he plays in the center of the baseball universe but somehow Jose Reyes has been unfairly (through no fault of his own) thrust into legendary status before he is ready. Reyes was taken out of a game in 2007 for not hustling and was booed by the Mets faithful in September when he slumped.
Jose Reyes is an exciting, loveable, energetic, base stealing dynamo that Mets fans will enjoy for a long time. But I think he is more likely to be the next Rafael Furcal than the next Arky Vaughn, the legendary Hall of Fame SS for the Pirates in the 30s. Thus Reyes is, in my opinion, one of the most overrated players statistically speaking in the game today and certainly not among my top 5 choices to build my franchise around.
Maybe Rickey Henderson is available?